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Aug 16, 2023

Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Saturday's MLB games

Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez remains in the rotation for now, has a solid matchup this weekend and he has pitched well enough for fantasy managers to invest. (0:42) Look for our fantasy baseball

Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez remains in the rotation for now, has a solid matchup this weekend and he has pitched well enough for fantasy managers to invest. (0:42)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

By Mike Sheets

• Closer Chart: Latest bullpen intel • Pitching projections: Next 10 days • Hitter ratings: Next 10 days• MLB depth charts for every team • Player news wire with fantasy spin

Acquired from the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline, Aaron Civale (51% rostered in ESPN leagues) will make his Tampa Bay Rays debut Saturday against the Detroit Tigers. Civale has been lights-out over the last month, delivering a 1.45 ERA and 0.80 WHIP across his last six starts. During that stretch, he hasn't surrendered more than two runs in any outing. Against a Tigers offense that owns the second-worst wRC+ (86) in the American League since the All-Star break, Civale looks like a top-tier streaming option.

Since coming off the injured list, Kenta Maeda has provided a big boost to the Minnesota Twins rotation, posting a 2.63 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 in seven starts. Fantasy managers haven't caught on, though, as he's still a free agent in nearly 80% of ESPN leagues. On Saturday, Maeda matches up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose offense has struggled over the past 30 days (87 wRC+, .304 wOBA). Stream him if he's available.

Steven Matz (9%) has been better than you think of late. The left-hander rejoined the St. Louis Cardinals rotation back in early July, and since then he's produced a 1.69 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning across five starts. In his past three outings, he has allowed just one run over 17 total frames. While it's hard to project this type of sustained success for the veteran lefty, he draws an extremely favorable home matchup versus the Colorado Rockies on Saturday. Away from Coors Field, the Rockies have one of the worst offenses in baseball, ranking bottom-five in MLB with an 83 wRC+ and a 26.5% K%.

Edouard Julien (9%) has been an underrated fantasy producer for the Minnesota Twins. Dating back to June 25, the rookie is slashing .341/.430/.624 with 6 homers, 10 RBIs and 15 runs. Julien has done most of his damage this season against right-handed pitching (.303/.397/.564), and Saturday he matches up with right-hander Ryne Nelson, who is allowing a .363 wOBA to lefty swingers. Fire Julien up as a streamer if you have a void in your middle infield.

With Trevor Williams toeing the rubber for the Washington Nationals on Saturday, we could see the Cincinnati Reds offense put up a crooked number. Not only has the right-hander been tattooed by left-handed batters this year (.305/.357/.511), but he will also be pitching in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments. Lefty hitters Jake Fraley (39%), Joey Votto (10%), Will Benson (5%) and TJ Friedl (13%) all look like prime streaming options, while righties Matt McLain (51%) and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (13%) are in play, too.

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF -- 6%) at Paul Blackburn

Tyler O'Neill (STL, LF -- 18%) vs. Ty Blach

Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 4%) vs. Ryne Nelson

Ezequiel Duran (TEX, 3B -- 23%) vs. Ryan Weathers

Carlos Santana (MIL, 1B -- 22%) vs. Luis Ortiz

Mitch Garver (TEX, DH -- 2%) vs. Weathers

Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 25%) vs. Jose Berrios

Brandon Lowe (TB, 2B -- 55%) at Tarik Skubal

Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 59%) vs. George Kirby

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI, LF -- 51%) at Kenta Maeda

C.J. Cron (LAA, 1B -- 54%) vs. Kirby

J.D. Martinez (LAD, DH -- 77%) at Blake Snell

Ty France (SEA, 1B -- 66%) at Tyler Anderson

Jose Abreu (HOU, 1B -- 61%) at Nestor Cortes

MJ Melendez (KC, C -- 50%) at Cristopher Sanchez

Bryan Reynolds (PIT, CF -- 94%) at Corbin Burnes